Can the Xfactor result be predicted from social network activity?

Or specifically can facebook be used a tool for prediction and if so, is it effective?
Click the image to see it in full, sorry it takes up so much space!

I've used a similar technique to that I used for the elections earlier this year (see link on the right), rushing round facebook pages and noting down the amount of users that are fans of each of the artists. I thought I'd start off highlighting all those who made it to the final 16(who are all abreviated to their first four letters). On the left are those still in the competition, and on the right those who have been eliminated. Note I have taken a log scale of the number of fans so that comparisons can be made, as the range of data was large (cher had 1,101,203; whereas poor john only had  6325). What do we see?

• Cher's fanpage is vastly higher than that of any other contestant (and is in fact more than a 1/3 of the size of mentor Cheryl's fanpage). Why?
• Of the contestants still battling it out Katie has the fewest fans, even lower than some of those evicted, is this why she has been in the sing-off so often?
• Diva Fever and Aiden have more fans than some of those still in the competition. Did people only start to miss these acts once they'd left? Should they have stayed in for longer?

I wish I'd started collecting data earlier as the systems dynamics could have been analysed and attributed to real life events and would perhaps be able to make some comments or conclusions.
I plan to collect more data on those still in the competition up till it's finished and posting it here, but at a first impression of facebook data it looks like Cher Lloyd has the Xfactor in the bag.


NOTE: It must be noted also that not all people vote and it may be that only a few people(in relation to total fans) are dictating the decisions of the competition, that people may be fan of more than one contestant and that people can vote tactically - by not voting, voting for a contestant who isn't their favourite, or by voting for several contestants. Age structure probably plays a part in the voting system. Conclusions taken from the figure do not take these factors into account.

Climate Change: is it? Part 1.

Despite the huge amount of funds, science and political/social movements, there are still so called 'climate deniers' around; probably the most famous of whom is Jeremy Clarkson. There skepticism was pushed under the carpet by many, until last years 'climategate scandal' when University of East Anglia emails were hacked and leaked on the internet. Not so bad, until it was found these emails showed that data used in papers that predict some aspects of climate change and in turn used to push government and organistaional policy and spending were of poor standard, used questionable methods and were stored in an unorganised way. This scandal has got climate scientists quaking in their boots as organisations, mostly US, employ people to meticulously look through climate research and try to unroot and disprove it.

Standards of climate research through data collections, simulations and interepatations has obviously had to increase and many of those working in the area have had to be more careful in what they both say and write to avoid being put in a compromising position or being taken the wrong way.

Climate is defined as the average weather conditions for a region over a reasonable time period. Hardly a robust at all. But it is easy to see that skeptics with logical arguements are not argueing that climate does not change- because invariablly it does;  it doesn't take a human lifetime to see one winter is different to the next.  Rather they are more concerned with the qualitative and quantitive results about future climate predictions - especially with the well known unreliability of weather predictions (though they are usually fairly accurate most of the time!) and whether human life and its activities are a big enough force to change the course of nature itself.

So what makes this area so controversial? Two major reasons I think:

1. Price - To revert anthropogenic climate change as models predict will require a lot of money and policy change and is time, money, effort best spent in this area?

"oh hard times,
for the prize, yes the prize,
i thought i knew
oh it's the price we gotta pay
and all the games we gotta play
makes me wonder if it's worth it to carry on" The Price by Twisted Sister.

"There are no solutions...there are only tradeoffs" Thomas Sowell, Economist.

2. Complexity - Earth Systems Science isn't easy, especially when it's spatio-temporal bounds are large (variations over time and space differ widely).

To put it simply:

"You never really know what you can't really see" Relief by Cold War Kids.

Or the more complex version:

"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't know we don't know." Donald Rumsfeld, previous US Defense Secretary.

An equilibrium of empty bellies

"Raise wages? Can it be done? They are fixed by cast-iron laws at the lowest indispensible figure - just the bare minimum so that workers can feed on dry bread and produce children. If wages drop too low the workers die, and the demand for more men raises them again. If they go too high there's too much labour available, and they come down again. It is an equilibrium of empty bellies, a life-sentance in the prison of hunger." Souvarine the mechanic, in Germinal by Emile Zola.

Things may have improved an awful lot for the ordinary worker since the days of Germinal's deep, profiteering grey mines but are the hands that feed us really so cold and brutal?  Businesses want profit and what is outlined above makes straight forward fast talking money making sense, especially in a recession fuelled climate such as today, or that in Germinal itself. But it is business without emotion and without care; so how does it arise in human culture? Fortunately in todays world there are trade unions, a generally more open culture and (apparently) more accountable represenatitives of the people.

But the idea of a ruthless business model is far from stagnant. I watched the film Moon, which incidentally has a fantastic soundtrack by Clint Mansell, this morning in which a man; Sam, has a 3 year contract performing lunar work before being promised a return to Earth. The company decides it's too expensive to repeatedly send workers to and from the moon, have Sam cloned hundreds of times and set them to work one at a time for 3 year contracts before killing each and repeating the process. I think it can be agreed the ethics are questionable even if those maltreated are 'only' clones. Of course you don't have to look as far as sci-fi for examples. The Gulf of Mexico oil spill, the Mexico mining disaster and of course the most recent failing of the banks are all prime examples of where often profit comes before safety - whether that be personal, personel, environmental or social! What is the best way of turning this way of thinking on its head?

Cities, culture and a circuit

I am in York. It is a big city. It is an old city. It is a Yorkshire city; and I'm damn proud of that, though I have little reason to be. What suprises me most is how different the populations make up is to that of Leeds. There are old people. There are children. There are very few people from ethnic minorities. Not all takeaway delivery people are from ethnic backgrounds. There are very few people who speak in a foreign language. It is all rather strange and surreal to me at the moment. I'm not used to it yet, but I will have to. It is a beautiful city with elegant old buildings, thatched cottages, hugging streets and  protective stone walls. There are so many nooks and crannies still undiscovered and waiting to be explored. But it is no Leeds and Leeds I sincerley miss.

I have no job, so there is nothing for me to do except absorb culture; reading books, listening to music watching DVD's and playing computer games as well as adding to my collections of all. I have bought 3 books on the subject of mathematical/theoretical biology/ecology which is what my next year will rigourously consist of. I have had lots of fun playing with the house DAB radio and picking up new music, my favourite channels being BBC 6 music and BBC Asian Network, ironically the two stations that were nearly slayed by the BBC a while back. Steam has provided a free game - Alien Swarm which is quite fun, though I always find it weird playing 3rd person shooters from a ceiling perspective and I have also engrossed myself with Civilisation IV and Plants vs. Zombies. As a house we've been watching a whole lot of DVD's and I have ordered two more - Shine, about a musician who has a musical breakdown which I saw on the TV a while back and loved and Into The Wild, which I have heard good things about!

I plan to have an adventure myself next week; on the basis of the book I've just read - Laurie Lee's As I Walked Out One Midsummer Morning, about a violinist who left glouster walked to and worked in London on a construction site till the job ended and decided to spend his moeny on a boat to Spain which he walked across making a living from his playing and the generosity of the local people. Providing it's nice I'll set off in the morning with a packed lunch and walk somewhere fun about 20/25 miles away before catching a train home. That's the plan at least.

Blends

We've had the summer solstice, we've had a little heatwave and we've had the chance to enjoy many of the summers festivals whether in person or via the media. It feels like the end of summer to me, and not just because of the drizzly skies, and yet the summer holidays have only just begun!! Not that I'm complaining too much - mine are much longer! But can't be great fun for them.

I'm not going anywhere on holiday this year, but I am planning to move out from the quaint, rural villagey heart of Cheshire to the exciting city centered heart of York in less than a couple of weeks with my friends Phil and Lauren which I am really looking forward to! Hopefully I will be fortunate enough to find a job before I become a postgraduate student in Mathematics. I don't know what to expect, but I know a lot of people would be terrified just at the prospect of it. That is why I must march forwards with mindless optimism.

Brown and Out!

Man, that title sounds wrong and it isn't entirely accurate. G' Brown hasn't left the house yet although as you will have surely read by now he plans to resign as PM. I hope it isn't the end of the political spectrum for him though, as he did get re-elected and has to face a lot of speck from the media over the last 3 years. To controversially quote,  "You really have to ask yourself who controls the media" in these situations and though Mr. (or Dr.!) Brown doesn't possess the most photogenic of smiles and wasn't elected as PM by the people, he has been unlucky by what the world has thrown at him during his period in power. The recession was global, the expenses scandal was uncovered but had been going on for years and the public were getting bored of a labour government; of course he did make mistakes but he really picked a bad time to take up office in No.10. Today as he gave his resignation speech he looked tired, sad and weary. He knew his time was up. Least he'll be able to spend more time with his family now, whenever it is he finally goes and that could be days or months, depending on how likely a Lib-Lab government is.

Dave Cameron has just phoned Clegg with the final details of an offer for a coalition government. Let's see how it all pans out!

May 6th

Day of Terror, Fear, Worry and Anxiety. If you're a politician that is. For the rest of us, it's a day we get to go into a ballot station and pick a box from many to lay our trust in. Some of us will be voting for the party leaders, whilst some will be voting for party policies, some will vote nationally, whilst others vote locally, some of us will be voting tactically to keep another party out, whilst others vote with their hearts, some have voted already, while there are still others will not vote at all. But it is a day of 'big decisions' and will culminate in the knowing of who will lead us through the next 4/5 years. If you haven't decided yet, you have until 10pm to make up your mind and if you have any inkling at all for or against any politician or any political party I urge you to get out there and use your vote!

Here are my results from monitering facebook political party groups, up till Tuesday done in 3 day windows. However since the end of my tallying, the conservatives have slightly regained their lead over the Lib Dems. Overall, the Lib Dems have had the most success on their online campaign - gaining almost twice as many members as the conservatives and even more than other parties. What about the other political parties? Why did I not tally them? Because they were too small to find when I began! Plaid Cymru and the SNP have less than 200 members between them, UKIP don't have a facebook greoup as far as I'm aware, but the Green's have grown to almost 10,000 members. All other parties I disregard as I cannot name any more!

But I relent, happy voting and I hope you're happy with who we put in charge of Parliament come tomorrow!

At war with the daisies.

Call me a zombie, call me dieased, but the plants are getting to me!My throat is sore, my voice is raspy and my skin and eyes are extremely itchy and the antihistimines aren't greatly helping! The sun is out and shining, perfect for photosynthesis and for plants to release their pollen and other bioaerosols. "Bioaerosols?" I hear you cry, "What are they?". Well I guess I can turn my 'plant rant' into a quick geography (or biogeography if you will) lesson, as although I hate them for physically attacking my immune system and being the subject of an upcoming presentation and essay, they are rather useful in the climate.

Ok Bioaersols are aerosols that are biological in origin, here released by plants. Aerosol is the name given to any tiny particulate piece of matter that is floating around in the atmosphere. So what do they do? They can moderate the climate in at least two ways!

1) The Global Dimming effect - this is a theory which says that all the tiny aerosols in the atmosphere act effectively as mirrors for radiation to bounce off and hence reduce the amount of radiation that hits the Earth's surface, hence keeping surface temperatures lower than they would otherwise be.

2) These tiny aerosols can bind with other molecules and can help with cloud formation processes in the atmosphere, which also act as a radiation barrier and aid the hydrological cycle.

Plants of course can do many more amazing things, but these two effects are examples of something bigger- Gaia Theory. Developed by James Lovelock, who informed the world of the dangerous levels of CFC's (chlorofluorocarbon's) in the atmosphere, it proposes the idea that life on Earth acts in a way such that the climate is moderated by biological processes such that it can sustain biological life. Many worry that anthropogenic (human) pressures on the Earth's resources and our power to 'terraform' our planet is a risk to what natural processes have done for the last 4.2 or so billion years.

None of this helps my hayfever though...

Hi - larious!

Is this the best picture the BBC could find? Sums up things a bit though!

Laugh at the Leading Three

Well, just over a week before the polls open and postal votes are being sent! SO to lighten the mood here are 3 hilarious paradies of the leaders of the big three parties. Sorry to the SNP and Plaid Cymru but you aren't standing in a seat even remotely close to me...so for all I know... you don't exist!

Conservatives: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKFTtYx2OHc

Labour: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWbfvZF7-WQ

Liberal Democrats: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ed6YTaDtUxM

Facebook scrutiny?

I have kept up my record keeping on the political parties facebook pages, which I have taken once every 3 days(to reduce errors at the particular time I have taken them) and here are my results graphically so far.

As can be seen, the Liberal Democrats have made a huge surge after the tv debates started (15/4/10) and the momentum didn't stop after the 2nd debate (22/4/10) though it has slowred, despite the stronger performances of Gordon and David. The other parties growth has been much more linear in comparison, which suggests they haven't had much in the way of a push from the tv debates amongst facebook users. There is still plenty of time before we vote, can any more information be suggested by the medium of facebook?

In addition I have recently discovererd Facebook has a prejudice against the Labour party. To find the data for the above graph I have to search for each party using the search bar. Usually they pop up as a suggestion before the whole party's name is inputted, but recently the Labour party has stopped appearing altogether, even when the whole title is inputted, which means you have to follow through to the main search page before it can be accessed. However, whether this is intentional, something to do with my personal settings or something behind the search algorithms I am unsure. All I know is it only occurs for Labour.

In light of last night

The first of the three big televised debates took the grip of the nation last night, which turned out to be a rather pallid affair. There was no real fighting, and although the party leaders weren't so casual as to joke with one another, there were smiles all round and even some agreement between the parties.


The highlights for me were:

1. Nick Clegg's strong performance
2. David Cameron telling us Labour had done some good for the country during their 13 years in office.
3. Gordon Brown's general amicability
4. The 40 year old David Cameron reffered to, who's been working for the Navy for 30 years.

Another note I want to make is about what seems to be the key buzzword for this election. Every party is using it. Fair.  The weather has been so far this week, but there's still plenty of time for a political storm to brew. Though if you aren't signed up to vote you need to before the 20th April to make your opinions count! You can do here: http://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/
 
And finally some numbers, carrying on from the last post.

facebook supporters:
BNP: 13,725
Conservatives: 45,776
Labour: 21,973

Li Dem: 25,529

It looks like the debate has had a significant effect on the number of Lib Dem supporters, and it's probably important to note the group I posted earlier this week about getting the Lib Dems into office has attained 41,211 members.

2010's elections are something a little bit special. The media storm(and associated technology) is bigger, better and faster at bringing news and opinions to potential voters than ever before, and in ever more formats. Newspapers, pamphlets, magazines, radio, television, blogs, websites and new formats such as live feeds, microblogging(twitter) and social networking sites (facebook) as well as the traditional word of mouth all come into play to push politics to the top of the agenda and down our throats! Not that I'm complaining too much, it is only for one month and it should be an exciting one at that. The most exciting thing about it? Firstly, by how much some people are getting all excited about it, and Secondly, the live televised debates. These threaten to turn the election into even more of a personality contest than it already is, but allow us a laugh at the largest political parties and a bigger insight into their policies and personalities than we'd otherwise gain without partialising ourselves and turning up at party rallies.

Speaking of policies, you should have a gander at this website and see which party's policies are the ones that you represent, I was suprised and especially so by the pool results so far! : www.voteforpolicies.org.uk

As far as predicting the election outcome however, I'd like to believe that the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats had a chance at winning, despite the constant Tory outcry of it being a 2 party race and as a result have sparked something in the souls of some British people who have started a facebook group backing the Lib Dems as the underdogs *cue Rocky Theme tune*. As far as the facebook evangelical party elite is concerned though we see:

Conservatives: 39,888 fans  (This rather large number in comparison to the other parties can be at least in part attributed to other conservative parties e.g. in the US)
Labour: 18,638 fans
LibDems: 16,828 fans
and disturbingly... BNP: 12,396 fans

Of course most voters aren't going to join a party's page as most of them are not part of a party and many of their views won't be upheld by a single party alone and many will be troubled over whether they should vote locally or nationally.Though the more supporters one has, the more potential supporters they can win over. It will be interesting to see how these numbers change through the campaigns.

I'm not sure how easily it can be predicted but I believe the televised debates will be particularly important in swaying some voters. My personal favourite prediction method for the prime porker however has to be this-> Snorters

What do you call...

"What do you call a penguin in the desert?" was the question put to me, both casually and airily by the wrapped up chocolate biscuit. The answer I recieved produced puzzlement, shock and dismay to my mind. For a penguin in a desert is not "Lost." but very much at home!

When we think of penguins and where their habitats are, we are naturally drawn to think of Antartica; as shown here with regards to Kev O'Donnell and the BBC:

But that isn't the only place they naturally occupy on Earth. (I'm not thinking of zoos here!) They can also be found, somewhere you may not expect, the Atacama desert in Chile, with thanks to New Zealand Penguins:

It's hiding out of the sun under the rocks on the right of the picture, bless it! There are also other penguin populations across South America and also in some parts of Africa and in the Galapogas archipeligo, though all are restricted to the Southern Hemisphere. Have there ever been any in the Northern hemisphere? We'd have to look for fossil evidence, but it does appear the equator(being too warm) is acting as geographical boundary to penguin spread, though other factors such as human interaction and ocean currents may alos be at work.

What also remains to be said is that both the pictures of penguins above are taken in deserts!! As a desert by definition is an area or region that recieves little to no precipitation and is moisture deficient, this includes both hot sandy deserts like the Sahara as well as the wide, cold, desolate ice sheets of Antartica.

To conclude, a penguin in a desert is not necessarily lost, though a penguin in the N. Hemisphere would be...and a penguin finding it's way into a dessert even more so!

Eep

Unfortuantely the job market isn't like the housing market in Leeds at the moment. Here we can leave getting the house to the last moment and even force the landlords(or ladies!)to offer a lower than stated rent price due to an overabundance of housing, as to sell is better than not to sell at all. Despite this, most students still love to get in an awful tiz about it all, go haywire and panic buy one of the first properties they see. While it's probably true the best houses do go earlier in the season, all properties are hospitable(hopefully!) and those who buy later in the year have more levarage over the owners to make the property more amenable to themselves, whether that's by lowering the rent/installing a new washer/dryer, sticking the furniture to the ceiling. Buying later on also gives the added bonus of being able to work together with those you intend to live with, to find a property that will suit you all and even better! allows you more time to make sure you are spending your future with people you are comfortable around!

The current economic climate makes things pretty tough for the job market, which wasn't even all hoops and banners before the crash due it's competitiveness(more people with degrees and more people with other appropriate qualifications e.g. BTEC's), the ageing population and it can be hard to get a foothold on the ladder, especially as it is only one of many scary pressures affecting life you the young candidate right now - which makes it incredibly difficult to stay positive about the future... I mean a job is needed for money, but it only warrants a certain amount of energy to spent on trying for one before a depressive spiral takes hold. And even then you are still not safe!

Life's full of important lessons

Was shown this in my lecture today, totally irrelevant, but still hilarious!

Climatology: Intro

To help me structure (and show off) what I think I know of the world, specifically on the dynamics of the Earth I thought I'd do a series of blog posts, which incorporate what I know and vent my frustrations at how beautiful and yet incredulously complex our home planet is. I'll start off by describing the world in 1D (one dimension), which can be visualised as a line that takes us on a journey from the furthest reaches of the atmosphere to the very core of the Earth.

These are zones, or regions, or spaces with specific processes taking place within them. Some of them, particularly within the atmosphere are charachterized by their actual size and position, whereas others, particularly in the terrestrial (ground) layer are mixed- the biosphere, for example, incorporates the space taken up by all biological life which using ducks as an example includes their flying, diving and waddling activities!

Next time I'll draw a visual representation(s) of the below and outline what is actually meant by climate.

Atmosphere- Above Ground

• (Magnetosphere -  The region in outer space that the Earth's magnetic field has an influence on charged particles, particularly those which are ejected from the sun, called the solar wind. This makes it a similar shape in outline to that of a comet and it's streaks. )
  
• Exosphere - The transition zone between outer space and Earth's atmosphere, if a particle has enough velocity to get out of the exosphere it will no longer be dragged back to Earth by gravity.
• Thermosphere -From between 800 and 350 km up depending on solar activity. Temperature increases in height to a max. of 1500 °C, where the ISS orbits!
• Mesosphere -  Temperature decreases with height, from 80 ish km up and the layer where most space debris burns up.
• Stratosphere - Temperature increases with height below 51km up.
• Troposphere - approx.17-7km above the surface and roughly 80% of the atmospheres mass, warmed by surface energy fluxes, temperature decreases with height.

Terrestrial - Ground

• Biosphere - All life above, below and in the ground and oceans
• Anthroposphere - The space influenced by Humans - not only including life, but also our Industrial exploitations
  
• Cryosphere - Areas defined by glacial or icy activity
• Hydrosphere - Water- the streams (including those from melting glaciers), lakes, oceans, seas, groundwater

Sedimental - Below Ground

• Pedosphere - The soil regions
• Rhizosphere - The soil regions where roots are found
  
• Lithosphere -  This includes the crust (continental and oceanic) as well as the top and more rigid part of the mantle which acts elastically.
• Aesthenosphere -  The weaker, hotter and deeper area of the mantle which undergoes more deformation than the lithosphere and is more viscous in nature.
  
• Mesosphere - Yes there are two of them! This one is below the Earth's surface and above the core.
• THE CORE! - Hot as Hell?

With lots of help from these wiki pages: Atmos , Magneto, Bio, Hydro, Pedo, Litho
And as I'm sure you'll see, it's very easy to disagree with me.

News~

I was thinking of making this into a short series for radio...but I think my laughs probably aren't all that funny to those who don't not only do mathematics, but have my sense of humour AND also spend a significant amount of their spare(and not so spare) time on BBC news(or other newscasting establishment), but let me know if you get something from it; if you know what I mean! ;)



Beep--Beep--Beep--BEEEEEEP

Welcome to News Twiddle with me, Mark Maywords. If you were after the normalised news, divide by the square root of the constant of integration now. Todays top headline: Chocolate...Choco-late

Talks broke down between workers and bosses at Crunchies underground secret lair in Birmingham today over job and condition fears after the hostile invasion, assault and takeover by Arts& yesterday. John DeClub of the chocolatiers working union said workers had been given far too much to chew on and calls on managers to stop taking the biscuits.

And a possible new treatment for game cancer has been announced today by researchers at the University of Knaresborough. Dr. Jean Bouis who heads the study explains how it works:

Vell eets very tres simples you see? Ze Nuero-blastoises have been identified in ze gramial cavity causing ze cancer, we sends in ze nano-charizard but not very effective..., now have come up with  pico-chu. IS super effective!Weaken ze blastoise, fit it in tiny balls and all problems solv-ed! Simples!

And In sports; all players still have their arms and legs despite vigourous attempts to lose them.

Now presenting the weather straight from the Met Office, it' Mike Snow.

Thanks Mark, today's forecast is certaintly brighter than that of yesterday I must say; but there's some typical British weather to look out for over the weekend; with a view to some typical British weather early next week.

That's all from me, Mark Maywords, more state updates in 2πn.

Ice

There is no blogpost this week due to the bad conditions caused by snow and ice. I hope to return next week; if it doesn't slip my mind. In the meantime: watch where you're standing, and run carefully.

Wishes

If you could wish for anything in the world...

Would you change the world for yourself?

Or

Would you change yourself for the world?